Madagascar Seeks Washington Reprieve on AGOA & Trump Tariffs

Updated: July 2025

Antananarivo is urgently lobbying Washington for relief ahead of looming US tariff hikes and the September expiry of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). Facing steep duties—47% on key exports such as vanilla and textiles—Madagascar’s government is racing to secure at least a temporary reprieve to safeguard vital jobs and industries

🔥 US Tariffs & AGOA: The Stakes for Madagascar

In April, President Trump announced blanket 10% tariffs, with asymmetric “reciprocal” duties reaching 47% for Madagascar :contentReference. This severely disrupts AGOA’s preferential treatment, threatening hundreds of local exporters and undermining gains from the programme }.

AGOA, enacted in 2000, allowed duty-free access predominantly for textiles, vanilla, and other Malagasy products — sectors employing tens of thousands and earning significant export revenue

🏭 Economic & Social Fallout

Madagascar exported about US$733 million worth of goods to the US in 2024, with around 20% of GDP tied to textiles and vanilla sectors alone :contentReference[oaicite:6]{index=6}.

• Textile industry: Employs ~180,000 people nationally; 60,000 jobs at risk from tariff impact
• Vanilla exports: Madagascar produces 80% of the global supply; exporters rushed shipments during a 90-day tariff pause
• Minerals: Nickel and cobalt exports face additional uncertainty, despite some tariff exemptions

🤝 Antananarivo’s Diplomatic Playbook

The Rajoelina administration launched two task forces led by Trade Minister David Ralambofiringa to negotiate with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Congress :contentReference[oaicite:10]{index=10}. Key approaches:

• Highlighting mutual benefits, especially for American firms sourcing vanilla or apparel processing in the U.S.
• Seeking a formal or informal extension/pause of AGOA-linked privileges.
• Coordinating lobbying efforts with other affected African nations like Lesotho, South Africa, and Mauritius

🔄 Temporary Relief & Bilateral Alternatives

The White House implemented a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs in April, providing Madagascar, and others, short-term breathing space :contentReference[oaicite:13]{index=13}.

Washington has also signaled openness to modernizing AGOA to tie it with the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), and to exploring bilateral sectoral deals for critical minerals or textiles

🌐 Economic Diversification & Path Ahead

Recognizing over-reliance on one trade partner, Madagascar is fast-tracking diversification:

• European & Gulf markets: Partnering with EU and UAE investors; part of a broader non-aligned trade strategy
• Critical minerals: Emphasizing exports of graphite, nickel, and cobalt—aligning with U.S. interest in secure supply chains
• AfCFTA: Leveraging continental tariff-relief, enabling smoother shipping and regional value chains.

📊 Economic Outlook & Growth Risks

According to BMI, Madagascar is Africa’s second-most exposed economy to U.S. demand—exports to the US represent ~4.2% of GDP and risk slowing Q4 growth by over 1 percentage point

Fitch Solutions echoes concerns that heightened tariffs could reduce real export growth from a robust 12.5% in 2024 to just 2.6% in 2025

🔮 What’s Next for AGOA and Tariffs?

The future of AGOA hinges on:

• US Congress’s decision on extension—current mandate expires September 2025
• Ongoing negotiations in Washington for a revised, modernized AGOA framework
• Effectiveness of dialogue: Madagascar is pushing for a tailored bilateral arrangement or carve-outs to preserve value-added exports.

🔗 Related & Reference Links

• US Tariffs Shock Madagascar: Analysis
• AGOA and Dutch Disease in Madagascar – Brookings
• Madagascar–United States relations – Wikipedia
• AGOA & Madagascar export strategy – AGOA.info
• AGOA modernization talks – CapMad

This post by africaintelligence.com

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