Chad 2025: Current Political Crisis Further Endangers Economic Diversification Prospects -

The Critical Stakes for Chad’s Economic Diversification Amid Political Crisis

Since the killing of former President Idriss Déby in April 2021, Chad has been ruled by a transitional government headed by his son, Mahamat Déby Itno. This turbulent political shift has placed the future of Chad’s economic diversification squarely on a knife‑edge. With oil revenues under opaque management and investment in agriculture and rural livelihoods lagging, the stakes for national stability and long-term growth have never been higher.

1. Political Turmoil and Fragile Transition

Déby’s death on April 20, 2021, occurred during frontline fighting with the rebel group FACT, triggering an immediate military takeover led by his son and suspending constitutional order ([turn0search15]:contentReference[oaicite:1]{index=1}). What followed was a prolonged transitional phase: the Transitional Military Council, succeeded by the National Transitional Council, promised elections in 2023–2024. However, the constitutional referendum in December 2023 was widely criticized, and the postponement and eventual controversial May 2024 election solidified fears of authoritarian entrenchment rather than genuine transition ([turn0search11][turn0search17]:contentReference[oaicite:2]{index=2}).

The political instability has shaken donor confidence. International development partners and aid programs tied to democratization stalled, directly impacting the momentum of Chad’s diversification efforts and implementation of reforms linked to its national development plans ([turn0search2]:contentReference[oaicite:3]{index=3}).

2. Oil Dependence: A Fiscal and Political Risk

Oil revenue continues to dominate Chad’s public finances—accounting for roughly 60% of budget revenues and more than 85% of exports ([turn0search6]:contentReference[oaicite:4]{index=4}). This deep dependence exposes Chad to commodity price shocks and undermines fiscal sustainability. Historically, oil windfalls have fueled military budgets and elite patronage rather than broad-based social investment ([turn0search14]:contentReference[oaicite:5]{index=5}).

These dynamics raise the stakes dramatically: without transparent oil revenue management, there’s little fiscal space left for critical investments in agriculture, infrastructure, or public services.

3. Rural Underinvestment and Persistent Poverty

Approximately 70–80% of Chad’s population relies on agriculture and livestock for survival, yet these sectors contribute only about 25–30% to GDP and receive minimal investment ([turn0search10]:contentReference[oaicite:6]{index=6}). Poor infrastructure—unpaved roads, limited access to electricity, and climate vulnerability—keep yields low and incomes precarious.

Without stronger public spending or donor support, rural households remain trapped in cycles of poverty. The stakes here are social and economic: unless diversification delivers tangible benefits beyond oil, instability and insecurity will persist.

4. Economic Trends and IMF‑Backed Reform Agenda

Chad saw GDP growth slow from 5% in 2023 to 3.5% in 2024, with projected growth at only 3.3% in 2025 ([turn0news12]:contentReference[oaicite:7]{index=7}). Meanwhile, non-oil activity—while recovering—lags behind, limiting job opportunities outside the extractive sector ([turn0search0][turn0search10]:contentReference[oaicite:8]{index=8}).

The IMF reached a staff‑level agreement in May 2025 for a four‑year Extended Credit Facility—valued at ~$630 million—to underpin structural reforms and Chad’s National Development Plan “Chad Connection 2030” ([turn0search1][turn0news12]:contentReference[oaicite:9]{index=9}). This program’s success hinges on fiscal consolidation, transparency in oil governance, and robust public financial reforms.

5. Chad Connection 2030: Ambition Amid Uncertainty

Announced in mid‑2025, Chad Connection 2030 targets $30 billion in public and private investment over six years, aiming to drive economic growth to 8% annually and diversify into infrastructure, digital services, agriculture, and mining ([turn0news13]:contentReference[oaicite:10]{index=10}). The plan also sets targets like doubling agricultural output and increasing mining’s GDP share from 1–2% to at least 5% by 2030.

Yet deliverability remains jeopardized by lack of political legitimacy and investor trust. The stakes: unless governance improves, donor engagement remains cautious and private sector mobilization may stall.

6. Governance, Corruption, and Institutional Weakness

Chad ranks 158th out of 180 countries on the 2024 Corruption Perceptions Index, with an index score of only 21/100—far below the regional average of 33 ([turn0search14]:contentReference[oaicite:11]{index=11}). Corruption is endemic across oil revenue streams, public procurement, and judicial institutions.

This corrosive environment undermines public trust and discourages foreign investment. The lack of transparency in oil sector revenue flows and diversion of public funds to security spending raise the stakes—because even large investments may fail to benefit the population or shift toward sustainable growth.

7. Infrastructure Gaps and Connectivity Constraints

Chad’s infrastructure remains severely underdeveloped. Over 70% of rural roads are impassable in rainy season, access to electricity is limited, and transport costs remain high—cutting smallholder farmers off from markets ([turn0search8]:contentReference[oaicite:12]{index=12}). Choked trade corridors and poor logistics reinforce the risk that even increased investment under Chad Connection 2030 may not benefit the most vulnerable.

8. Climate Fragility & Security Challenges

Climate shocks—droughts, floods, desertification—put pressure on rural livelihoods. Meanwhile, northern insurgencies continue: multiple rebel factions remain active, and conflict episodes persist near Chad–Sudan and CAR borders ([turn0search18]:contentReference[oaicite:13]{index=13}). Displacement and militia activity deter investment and raise operating risks for businesses in rural regions.

The stakes here are multidimensional: food insecurity, displacement, and degraded social resilience make diversification harder and recovery slower.

9. Education, Skills, and Workforce Gaps

Chad’s education system is severely underfunded: literacy rates are low, vocational training is limited, and youth unemployment is high ([turn0search2]:contentReference[oaicite:14]{index=14}). Without investment in human capital, diversification into services, digital economy, and agribusiness is constrained.

10. What Must Be Done to Lower These Stakes

Fiscal transparency: Audit oil revenues, restrict military diversion, and refurbish public finance systems as IMF recommends ([turn0search1]:contentReference[oaicite:15]{index=15}).
Invest in rural economy: Prioritize infrastructure, climate‑smart agriculture, and value‑chains for gum arabic, livestock, cotton.
Reduce corruption: Anti‑graft frameworks, judicial independence, and enhanced civil oversight.
Support human capital: Expand education and vocational training, especially for women and youth.
Leverage Chad Connection 2030: Channel donor and private capital into high‑impact sectors beyond oil.

Conclusion

Chad’s political crisis has transformed economic diversification from a hopeful vision into a critical test of governance, social inclusion, and development strategy. With oil revenue still dominant, rural sectors starved of investment, and donor confidence fragile, the stakes could not be higher. Without credible reform—fiscal, institutional, and democratic—the window for transformation may close, leaving the country trapped in conflict, poverty, and economic dependency.

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External References

Reuters: Chad IMF Extended Credit Facility program ([turn0news12]:contentReference[oaicite:16]{index=16})
Reuters: Chad seeks $30 billion for development plan ([turn0news13]:contentReference[oaicite:17]{index=17})
IMF Press Releases on Chad reforms ([turn0search1]:contentReference[oaicite:18]{index=18})
African Development Bank: Chad outlook ([turn0search10]:contentReference[oaicite:19]{index=19})

The Critical Stakes for Chad’s Economic Diversification Amid Political Crisis

Following the death of former President Idriss Déby in April 2021 and the rise of a military-led transitional government headed by his son, Mahamat Déby Itno, Chad faces heightened turmoil. This turmoil dramatically raises the stakes for its economic diversification: oil revenues risk mismanagement, rural development remains neglected, and progress toward inclusive growth may stall.

1. Fragile Political Transition Undermines Confidence

The military takeover disrupted constitutional order, triggering a shift from the Transitional Military Council to the National Transitional Council. Elections postponed and the constitutional referendum in December 2023 lacked legitimacy. Key donors suspended aid, weakening support for diversification initiatives ([turn0search16]([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chad)), [turn0search11]([imf.org]), [turn0search17]([fr.wikipedia.org/chad-economie])).

These dynamics signal extreme fragility: without political legitimacy, reform programs tied to “Chad Connection 2030” remain speculative, not concrete. The broader stakes involve governance stability and multilateral engagement.

2. Oil Dependence Amplifies Economic Vulnerability

Oil revenues still constitute approximately 60–67 % of government income and over 78–85 % of export earnings ([turn0search3]([imf.org]), [turn0search14]([en.wikipedia.org))). These revenues are volatile and ethically misallocated, often fueling patronage rather than rural investment or social services.

Without transparent fiscal oversight, oil wealth risks exacerbating inequality rather than enabling growth—raising the national stakes for future stability.

3. Persistent Rural Poverty and Underinvestment

Chad’s rural sector employs between 70–80 % of the workforce but contributes only about 25–30 % of GDP. Infrastructure is poor, climate shocks frequent, and access to markets limited ([turn0search15]([en.wikipedia.org/chad_agriculture]), [turn0search2]([worldbank.org])).

Nearly 40 % of the population lives in extreme poverty, with food insecurity affecting millions. Without investment, rural livelihoods are stagnant and fragile, deepening the stakes of diversification failure.

4. Economic Slowing and IMF Backing

Growth slowed from 5% in 2023 to 3.5% in 2024, projected at 3.3% in 2025. The IMF signed a staff-level agreement in May 2025 for a $630 million Extended Credit Facility to support Chad Connection 2030 and reduce fiscal deficits from over 4% to 1.5% on average over the program period ([turn0news12]([reuters.com]), [turn0search0]([imf.org]), [turn0search5]([ecofinagency.com])).

The success of the plan hinges on fiscal discipline, revenue diversification, and transparency—making the stakes of donor support extremely high.

5. Chad Connection 2030: Ambitious but Risk-Laden

But without a legitimacy base and investor confidence, implementation remains tenuous. Chad’s ability to attract financing and deliver broad-based growth is what will shape whether the plan succeeds or collapses under pressure.

6. Climate and Security Risks Threaten Rural Gains

Chad faces climate threats—droughts, floods, desertification—and recurrent attacks from insurgent groups, particularly around the Lake Chad Basin and border areas ([turn0search19]([en.wikipedia.org/food_security_in_Chad)), [turn0search2]([worldbank.org])). These compound socio-economic fragility for rural households, undermining diversification efforts.

Farmers and pastoralists need resilient infrastructure and climate adaptation. Without it, the stakes for food security remain intolerably high.

7. Human Capital Constraints Limit Growth

With a human capital index of 0.30, low literacy, and limited vocational training, Chad’s population is poorly prepared for economic diversity ([turn0search2]([worldbank.org])).

Diversification into services, agribusiness, and digital economy demands investment in education, especially for youth and women. Missed investment risks undermining inclusive progress.

8. Governance Weakness and Corruption

Chad ranks among the lowest on global corruption indices. Oil revenues and public procurement often lack transparency, impeding public trust and investment ([turn0search14]([en.wikipedia.org]), [turn0search3]([imf.org])).

Without governance reform, even large-scale investments may fail to deliver benefits—raising the moral and strategic stakes for reformers.

9. Infrastructure Deficits Block Access

Over 70 % of rural roads are impassable in rain, electricity access is below 12%, and market isolation prevents income growth ([turn0search8]([ifad.org]), [turn0search2]([worldbank.org])).

These logistical barriers mean that even successful production cannot translate into economic uplift—raising the importance of infrastructure investment.

10. Lowering the Stakes: Reform Pathways

Oil governance transparency: audit revenue flows and limit military diversion per IMF recommendations.
Rural investment: fund climate‑smart agriculture, value chains (gum arabic, cotton, livestock), and market access.
Education & skills: expand literacy and vocational training, especially for youth and women.
Governance reform: strengthen anti-corruption frameworks and judicial independence.
Use Chad Connection 2030: channel donor and private capital into high‑impact, inclusive sectors.

Conclusion

Chad’s political fragility and economic dependency on oil have turned economic diversification from aspiration into a strategic battleground. The stakes are now existential: without credible institutions, rural investment, and international support, the country risks entrenched conflict, poverty, and dependency.

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External References

Chad seeks $630M IMF support :contentReference[oaicite:2]{index=2}
Chad Connection 2030: $30B development plan :contentReference[oaicite:3]{index=3}
IMF staff-level agreement with Chad :contentReference[oaicite:4]{index=4}
World Bank poverty and economic outlook :contentReference[oaicite:5]{index=5}
Economy and agriculture in Chad :contentReference[oaicite:6]{index=6}

Featured image: citizens protesting in N’Djamena, reflecting the rising stakes in Chad’s political instability and economic future.

The Critical Stakes for Chad’s Economic Diversification Amid Political Crisis

Following the death of former President Idriss Déby in April 2021 and the rise of a military-led transitional government headed by his son, Mahamat Déby Itno, the nation faces heightened turmoil. This turmoil dramatically raises the stakes for its economic diversification: oil revenues risk mismanagement, rural development remains neglected, and progress toward inclusive growth may stall.

1. Fragile Political Transition Undermines Confidence

The military takeover disrupted constitutional order, triggering a shift from the Transitional Military Council to the National Transitional Council. Elections postponed and the constitutional referendum in December 2023 lacked legitimacy. Key donors suspended aid, weakening support for diversification initiatives ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chad), [IMF](https://www.imf.org), [French Wikipedia](https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Économie_du_Tchad)).

These dynamics signal extreme fragility: without political legitimacy, reform programs tied to “Chad Connection 2030” remain speculative, not concrete. The broader risk involves governance stability and multilateral engagement.

2. Oil Dependence Amplifies Economic Vulnerability

Oil revenues still constitute approximately 60–67% of government income and over 78–85% of export earnings ([IMF](https://www.imf.org), [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Chad)). These revenues are volatile and often misallocated, fueling patronage rather than rural investment or social services.

Without transparent fiscal oversight, oil wealth risks exacerbating inequality rather than enabling growth—raising the national importance for future stability.

3. Persistent Rural Poverty and Underinvestment

The rural sector employs between 70–80% of the workforce but contributes only about 25–30% of GDP. Infrastructure is poor, climate shocks frequent, and access to markets limited ([Wikipedia Agriculture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agriculture_in_Chad), [World Bank](https://www.worldbank.org)).

Nearly 40% of the population lives in extreme poverty, with food insecurity affecting millions. Without investment, rural livelihoods are stagnant and fragile, deepening the challenges of diversification failure.

4. Economic Slowing and IMF Backing

Growth slowed from 5% in 2023 to 3.5% in 2024, projected at 3.3% in 2025. The IMF signed a staff-level agreement in May 2025 for a $630 million Extended Credit Facility to support Chad Connection 2030 and reduce fiscal deficits from over 4% to 1.5% on average over the program period ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/short-take-chad-seeks-630-million-financial-support-imf-2025-05-23), [IMF](https://www.imf.org), [Ecofin](https://www.ecofinagency.com)).

The success of the plan hinges on fiscal discipline, revenue diversification, and transparency—making the consequences of donor support extremely significant.

5. Chad Connection 2030: Ambitious but Risk-Laden

The national development plan seeks $30 billion in public-private investments to boost infrastructure, agriculture, digital economy, and mining, targeting 8% annual growth and reducing poverty ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/chads-development-plan-targets-30-billion-over-6-years-finance-minister-says-2025-06-03), [Chad Connection 2030](https://tchadconnexion2030.td)).

But without a legitimacy base and investor confidence, implementation remains tenuous. The country’s ability to attract financing and deliver broad-based growth will shape whether the plan succeeds or collapses under pressure.

6. Climate and Security Risks Threaten Rural Gains

The nation faces climate threats—droughts, floods, desertification—and recurrent attacks from insurgent groups, particularly around the Lake Chad Basin and border areas ([Wikipedia Food Security](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Food_security_in_Chad), [World Bank](https://www.worldbank.org)). These compound socio-economic fragility for rural households, undermining diversification efforts.

Farmers and pastoralists need resilient infrastructure and climate adaptation. Without it, food security remains at high risk.

7. Human Capital Constraints Limit Growth

With a human capital index of 0.30, low literacy, and limited vocational training, the population is poorly prepared for economic diversity ([World Bank](https://www.worldbank.org)).

Diversification into services, agribusiness, and digital economy demands investment in education, especially for youth and women. Missed investment risks undermining inclusive progress.

8. Governance Weakness and Corruption

The country ranks among the lowest on global corruption indices. Oil revenues and public procurement often lack transparency, impeding public trust and investment ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chad), [IMF](https://www.imf.org)).

Without governance reform, even large-scale investments may fail to deliver benefits—raising the moral and strategic stakes for reformers.

9. Infrastructure Deficits Block Access

Over 70% of rural roads are impassable in rain, electricity access is below 12%, and market isolation prevents income growth ([IFAD](https://www.ifad.org), [World Bank](https://www.worldbank.org)).

These logistical barriers mean that even successful production cannot translate into economic uplift—highlighting the importance of infrastructure investment.

10. Lowering the Risks: Reform Pathways

Oil governance transparency: audit revenue flows and limit military diversion per IMF recommendations.
Rural investment: fund climate-smart agriculture, value chains (gum arabic, cotton, livestock), and market access.
Education & skills: expand literacy and vocational training, especially for youth and women.
Governance reform: strengthen anti-corruption frameworks and judicial independence.
Use Chad Connection 2030: channel donor and private capital into high-impact, inclusive sectors.

Conclusion

The political fragility and economic dependency on oil have turned economic diversification from aspiration into a strategic battleground. The stakes are now existential: without credible institutions, rural investment, and international support, the country risks entrenched conflict, poverty, and dependency.

Explore More

External References

Chad seeks $630M IMF support (Reuters)
Chad Connection 2030: $30B development plan (Reuters)
IMF staff-level agreement with Chad (IMF, Ecofin)
World Bank poverty and economic outlook (World Bank)
Economy and agriculture in Chad (Wikipedia)

Featured image: citizens protesting in N’Djamena, reflecting the rising stakes in Chad’s political instability and economic future.

The Critical Stakes for Chad’s Economic Diversification Amid Political Crisis

1. Fragile Political Transition Undermines Confidence

2. Oil Dependence Amplifies Economic Vulnerability

Oil revenues still constitute approximately 60–67% of government income and over 78–85% of export earnings (IMF, Wikipedia). These revenues are volatile and often misallocated, fueling patronage rather than rural investment or social services.

Without transparent fiscal oversight, oil wealth risks exacerbating inequality rather than enabling growth—raising the national importance for future stability.

3. Persistent Rural Poverty and Underinvestment

Nearly 40% of the population lives in extreme poverty, with food insecurity affecting millions. Without investment, rural livelihoods are stagnant and fragile, deepening the challenges of diversification failure.

4. Economic Slowing and IMF Backing

The success of the plan hinges on fiscal discipline, revenue diversification, and transparency—making the consequences of donor support extremely significant.

5. Chad Connection 2030: Ambitious but Risk-Laden

6. Climate and Security Risks Threaten Rural Gains

The nation faces climate threats—droughts, floods, desertification—and recurrent attacks from insurgent groups, particularly around the Lake Chad Basin and border areas (Wikipedia Food Security, World Bank).

Farmers and pastoralists need resilient infrastructure and climate adaptation. Without it, food security remains at high risk.

7. Human Capital Constraints Limit Growth

With a human capital index of 0.30, low literacy, and limited vocational training, the population is poorly prepared for economic diversity (World Bank).

Diversification into services, agribusiness, and digital economy demands investment in education, especially for youth and women. Missed investment risks undermining inclusive progress.

8. Governance Weakness and Corruption

The country ranks among the lowest on global corruption indices. Oil revenues and public procurement often lack transparency, impeding public trust and investment (Wikipedia, IMF).

Without governance reform, even large-scale investments may fail to deliver benefits—raising the moral and strategic stakes for reformers.

9. Infrastructure Deficits Block Access

Over 70% of rural roads are impassable in rain, electricity access is below 12%, and market isolation prevents income growth (IFAD, World Bank).

These logistical barriers mean that even successful production cannot translate into economic uplift—highlighting the importance of infrastructure investment.

10. Lowering the Risks: Reform Pathways

Oil governance transparency: audit revenue flows and limit military diversion per IMF recommendations.
Rural investment: fund climate-smart agriculture, value chains (gum arabic, cotton, livestock), and market access.
Education & skills: expand literacy and vocational training, especially for youth and women.
Governance reform: strengthen anti-corruption frameworks and judicial independence.
Use Chad Connection 2030: channel donor and private capital into high-impact, inclusive sectors.

Conclusion

Explore More

External References

Chad seeks $630M IMF support (Reuters)
Chad Connection 2030: $30B development plan (Reuters)
IMF staff-level agreement with Chad (IMF, Ecofin)
World Bank poverty and economic outlook (World Bank)
Economy and agriculture in Chad (Wikipedia)

Featured image: citizens protesting in N’Djamena, reflecting the rising stakes in Chad’s political instability and economic future.

The Critical Stakes for Chad’s Economic Diversification Amid Political Crisis

Chad political crisis and economic stakes

1. Fragile Political Transition Undermines Confidence

2. Oil Dependence Amplifies Economic Vulnerability

Without transparent fiscal oversight, oil wealth risks exacerbating inequality rather than enabling growth—raising the national importance for future stability.

3. Persistent Rural Poverty and Underinvestment

Nearly 40% of the population lives in extreme poverty, with food insecurity affecting millions. Without investment, rural livelihoods are stagnant and fragile, deepening the challenges of diversification failure.

4. Economic Slowing and IMF Backing

The success of the plan hinges on fiscal discipline, revenue diversification, and transparency—making the consequences of donor support extremely significant.

5. Chad Connection 2030: Ambitious but Risk-Laden

6. Climate and Security Risks Threaten Rural Gains

Farmers and pastoralists need resilient infrastructure and climate adaptation. Without it, food security remains at high risk.

7. Human Capital Constraints Limit Growth

With a human capital index of 0.30, low literacy, and limited vocational training, the population is poorly prepared for economic diversity (World Bank).

Diversification into services, agribusiness, and digital economy demands investment in education, especially for youth and women. Missed investment risks undermining inclusive progress.

8. Governance Weakness and Corruption

The country ranks among the lowest on global corruption indices. Oil revenues and public procurement often lack transparency, impeding public trust and investment (Wikipedia, IMF).

Without governance reform, even large-scale investments may fail to deliver benefits—raising the moral and strategic stakes for reformers.

9. Infrastructure Deficits Block Access

Over 70% of rural roads are impassable in rain, electricity access is below 12%, and market isolation prevents income growth (IFAD, World Bank).

These logistical barriers mean that even successful production cannot translate into economic uplift—highlighting the importance of infrastructure investment.

10. Lowering the Risks: Reform Pathways

Oil governance transparency: audit revenue flows and limit military diversion per IMF recommendations.
Rural investment: fund climate-smart agriculture, value chains (gum arabic, cotton, livestock), and market access.
Education & skills: expand literacy and vocational training, especially for youth and women.
Governance reform: strengthen anti-corruption frameworks and judicial independence.
Use Chad Connection 2030: channel donor and private capital into high-impact, inclusive sectors.

Conclusion

Explore More

External References

Chad seeks $630M IMF support (Reuters)
Chad Connection 2030: $30B development plan (Reuters)
IMF staff-level agreement with Chad (IMF)
World Bank poverty and economic outlook (World Bank)
Economy and agriculture in Chad (Wikipedia)

Featured image: citizens protesting in N’Djamena, reflecting the rising stakes in Chad’s political instability and economic future.

The Critical Stakes for Chad’s Economic Diversification Amid Political Crisis

1. Fragile Political Transition Undermines Confidence

2. Oil Dependence Amplifies Economic Vulnerability

Without transparent fiscal oversight, this wealth risks exacerbating inequality rather than enabling growth—raising the national importance for future stability.

3. Persistent Rural Poverty and Underinvestment

Nearly 40% of the population lives in extreme poverty, with food insecurity affecting millions. Without investment, rural livelihoods are stagnant and fragile, deepening the challenges of diversification failure.

4. Economic Slowing and IMF Backing

Growth slowed from 5% in 2023 to 3.5% in 2024, projected at 3.3% in 2025. The IMF signed a staff-level agreement in May 2025 for a $630 million Extended Credit Facility to support the national development plan and reduce fiscal deficits from over 4% to 1.5% on average over the program period (Reuters, IMF).

The success of the plan hinges on fiscal discipline, revenue diversification, and transparency—making the consequences of donor support extremely significant.

5. Chad Connection 2030: Ambitious but Risk-Laden

6. Climate and Security Risks Threaten Rural Gains

Farmers and pastoralists need resilient infrastructure and climate adaptation. Without it, food security remains at high risk.

7. Human Capital Constraints Limit Growth

With a human capital index of 0.30, low literacy, and limited vocational training, the population is poorly prepared for economic diversity (World Bank).

Diversification into services, agribusiness, and digital economy demands investment in education, especially for youth and women. Missed investment risks undermining inclusive progress.

8. Governance Weakness and Corruption

The country ranks among the lowest on global corruption indices. Oil revenues and public procurement often lack transparency, impeding public trust and investment (Wikipedia, IMF).

Without governance reform, even large-scale investments may fail to deliver benefits—raising the moral and strategic stakes for reformers.

9. Infrastructure Deficits Block Access

Over 70% of rural roads are impassable in rain, electricity access is below 12%, and market isolation prevents income growth (IFAD, World Bank).

These logistical barriers mean that even successful production cannot translate into economic uplift—highlighting the importance of infrastructure investment.

10. Lowering the Risks: Reform Pathways

Oil governance transparency: audit revenue flows and limit military diversion per IMF recommendations.
Rural investment: fund climate-smart agriculture, value chains (gum arabic, cotton, livestock), and market access.
Education & skills: expand literacy and vocational training, especially for youth and women.
Governance reform: strengthen anti-corruption frameworks and judicial independence.
Use Chad Connection 2030: channel donor and private capital into high-impact, inclusive sectors.

Conclusion

Explore More

External References

Chad seeks $630M IMF support (Reuters)
Chad Connection 2030: $30B development plan (Reuters)
IMF staff-level agreement with Chad (IMF)
World Bank poverty and economic outlook (World Bank)
Economy and agriculture in Chad (Wikipedia)

Featured image: citizens protesting in N’Djamena, reflecting the rising stakes in Chad’s political instability and economic future.