South Africa’s export pipeline to China is moving faster since Beijing opened its zero-tariff scheme to qualifying African goods in May, and the first full months of operation show the shift is already measurable on the ground.
Chinese ambassador Wu Peng, speaking at an event in Pretoria, put figures to the delivery surge: South African exports rose nearly 25% year-on-year between May and August, while imports from China climbed 23% over the same period. The scheme, introduced in May, applies to qualifying African exports and has effectively lowered the cost of getting South African goods into the Chinese market.
What crosses that border matters as much as the volume. South Africa’s shipments to China span agricultural products, minerals and manufactured goods, a mix that officials see as the foundation for a broader rebalancing effort. The country has long run a lopsided trade account with its largest trading partner. Trade Minister Parks Tau noted that in 2025 South Africa exported roughly 222 billion rand ($13.5 billion) worth of goods to China while importing nearly twice that amount.
Peng said he had registered Pretoria’s demand for a more balanced trading relationship, and expressed confidence that “more and more South African high value-added products will enter the Chinese market in the future.” For implementers on both sides, the question now is whether that confidence translates into a durable shift in the composition of trade, not just its pace.
Meanwhile, the push to grow Chinese market access sits within a wider strategy to develop new markets at a time when South Africa’s trading position with the United States has deteriorated, raising the prospect of trade barriers. The duty-free African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) has been extended until 2028, but South Africa risks exclusion from it. The administration of President Donald Trump has taken issue with a number of the country’s domestic and foreign policies and has accused the government of persecuting white people, an accusation Pretoria denies.
Tau said he expects an announcement in early November on whether South Africa will be cut out of AGOA, though he described himself as “cautiously optimistic” about the outcome. For exporters and operators who depend on preferential access, that timeline sets the practical horizon: whatever the November decision brings, the zero-tariff Chinese scheme is currently the one channel where delivery is expanding rather than under threat.
The early evidence suggests the May scheme is functioning as intended, with volumes rising in both directions of the trade relationship. Whether the imbalance that Tau described begins to close will depend on how quickly higher value-added South African products clear the path into Chinese markets, a test that will play out over the coming quarters rather than in any single month’s figures.