Moscow is betting diplomatic capital on commercial returns this week, as more than 20 African leaders gather in the Russian capital for a two-day summit, the third such gathering since 2019. A total of 48 African countries have sent delegations, including 22 heads of state, and President Vladimir Putin has planned one-on-one meetings with most of them, an investment in securing markets and partners at a moment when sanctions over the war in Ukraine are weighing on the Russian economy.
The commercial stakes were on display from the opening sessions. Speaking hours before the high-level summit began on Wednesday, Putin told an economic forum for business leaders that a world in which power is no longer concentrated in the West was quickly becoming a reality. “The era when the fate of entire continents was determined by a narrow bloc of states is irrevocably gone,” he said.
Trade and market access sit at the centre of the agenda. Putin told delegates that Russia was “prepared to further expand the geographical reach of our agricultural product shipments”, a pledge with direct commercial significance given that attacks in the Black Sea linked to the conflict in Ukraine continue to disrupt grain exports from both Russia and Ukraine, much of which goes to African buyers. He also announced plans to “localise” the production of Russian medicines and vaccines on the African continent, and stressed that Russia was “open to sharing our modern competencies and high-tech digital know-how with our African friends”. The summit is expected to close on Thursday with a final declaration on deepening cooperation, alongside a separate statement on cooperation in artificial intelligence.
Yet the underlying economics remain thin. Russia-Africa relations are primarily centred on military and security issues rather than trade and investment, according to Ivan Klyszcz, a researcher at the International Centre for Defence and Security in Tallinn, Estonia, and a specialist in Russia-Africa relations. “Most African armies were trained during the Cold War by instructors from either the Soviet Union or the Eastern Bloc,” he told RFI. “This means they mainly use Soviet-style equipment, such as Kalashnikovs. These are markets in which Russia enjoys very, very privileged access.” Russian paramilitary forces are deployed in several African countries, primarily to protect leaders and infrastructure, and in some cases carry out combat missions, as in Mali, where the government is paying for Russian paramilitaries to battle a jihadist offensive. These forces are not merely guns for hire, Klyszcz argued: they are managed by Russian military intelligence and also serve Russian objectives.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin signalled it will broaden its institutional presence, saying Russia aims to open a 49th embassy on the continent, in Liberia. Moscow has courted African ties since the Soviet era and has long viewed the continent as a counterweight to what it sees as Western domination of international affairs. Cécile Marin, a specialist in Russian-African relations and a lecturer at Sciences Po Paris, said Africa plays a central role in Russia’s strategy to position itself as leader of the Global South. “Russia is putting forward a whole narrative denouncing the neocolonialism of the Western powers. Obviously, France is a major target,” she told RFI. Putin, she noted, is quick to emphasise that Russia, unlike France or the United Kingdom, never colonised African countries, and his government has also highlighted the “traditional values” it claims to share with many in Africa.
The question for investors and market-watchers is whether Moscow can finance these ambitions. Russia’s war in Ukraine is weighing heavily on its budget, and Paul-Simon Handy, regional director for East Africa at the Institute for Security Studies think tank in Pretoria, said the country’s fiscal room for manoeuvre was reduced. To implement the various policies outlined in its Africa strategy, “there would need to be fiscal and budgetary leeway, which does not seem to be available at the moment,” he told RFI. Instead, “the war in Ukraine may mean that Russia can only offer defence assistance and commercial cooperation in the supply of provisions, fertilisers and agricultural equipment”.
The war has also damaged the relationship commercially and diplomatically in another respect, after numerous reports of Africans being forcibly conscripted by Moscow to fight on the frontlines in Ukraine. The French Institute of International Relations estimates that between 3,000 and 4,000 Africans are fighting for Russia in Ukraine, some lured under false pretences with promises of well-paid work. Countries including Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa have publicly voiced alarm at the fate of their citizens recruited by Moscow. In an open letter to the African heads of state and other officials attending the summit, Amnesty International voiced “deep concern regarding Russia’s forced and deceptive recruitment” of African nations, urging officials to demand that Russia “cease any ongoing and future recruitment of people from Africa and other foreign nationals into its military forces”.
This story has been adapted from original reporting by RFI’s French service, with additional information from AFP.