South Africa’s economic targets now turn on a question of execution: whether the institutions charged with driving investment can convert ambitious pledges into money flowing through the economy. The warning comes from Jacko Maree, former chief executive of Standard Bank, who led Africa’s largest bank by assets between 1999 and 2013. According to Maree, the country needs an additional $75 billion in annual investment to reach its stated goals, and without a significant rise in fixed investment it has little chance of achieving sustained growth.
The accountability gap at the centre of the debate is stark. In 2012, the government set a target under its National Development Plan for fixed investment to reach 30% of gross domestic product by 2030. More than a decade later, the ratio remains below 15%, a shortfall Maree says reflects the distance between policy commitments and delivery. The warning lands as South Africa continues to grapple with years of sluggish performance, a prolonged electricity crisis, corruption scandals and rising costs for businesses.
Since President Cyril Ramaphosa took office in 2018 and began pursuing economic reforms, the economy has grown by an average of just 0.4%, according to Bloomberg. That record has sharpened scrutiny of whether the reform agenda, however well intentioned, is being matched by outcomes on the ground.
The state’s investment drive illustrates the problem. Authorities have targeted $116 billion in fresh investments over five years, drawing on both foreign and domestic capital. About $36 billion has already gone into manufacturing, energy and logistics, according to Business Insider Africa (https://africa.businessinsider.com/local/markets/africas-richest-country-needs-dollar75-billion-in-annual-investment-to-revive/l1q687d). Yet converting announcements into working projects remains a persistent weakness. Of roughly 1.5 trillion rand pledged since 2018, only 634 billion rand had actually flowed into the economy by March 2026, leaving a substantial share of commitments unrealised.
For Maree, the lesson lies in what has worked. He argues that South Africa’s renewable-energy investment programme shows that transparent, commercially viable projects can attract private and institutional capital, and that the same approach could extend to other critical sectors. Developing such projects with clear regulatory frameworks across ports, railways, tourism and other industries, he said, could encourage pension funds, large companies and institutional investors to commit more money. The framing places responsibility on government to create the conditions under which private capital is willing to move.
Energy remains central to that ambition. The country is pursuing a proposed 2.2 trillion rand energy investment programme, worth about $122 billion, with Chinese backing. The plan targets 105 gigawatts of new generation capacity and 14,500 kilometres of transmission lines by 2039, a scale that would require sustained coordination between state entities, regulators and private partners over decades.
Meanwhile, questions of mandate and cooperation also feature in the broader debate. Nhlanhla Nene, a former finance minister who now chairs the African unit of Italian research firm European House-Ambrosetti, has stressed the importance of closer cooperation between government and the private sector in getting the economy moving. He is working with business executives on initiatives to support investment and infrastructure development. “Our focus is on investment more than anything,” he said.
The Treasury’s own projections underline the stakes. The National Treasury estimated in October that economic growth could reach 2% by the end of the decade. Nene, by contrast, argues that growth of at least 3% is needed to create meaningful employment and improve living standards, a gap that places the burden squarely on policymakers to close through credible delivery.
Taken together, the assessments point to one consistent theme: South Africa’s plans are not short of ambition, but their success depends on whether the institutions responsible for implementation can demonstrate transparency, commercial viability and follow-through. Until pledged capital becomes invested capital at scale, the country’s 2030 targets risk remaining aspirational rather than achievable.